steve's White Mountain Blog

 

Lincoln N.H. Five Year Market report – price comparison.

In order for a comparison to make any reasonable conclusions I decided to study a narrow field of specific properties. All sales for this study were of Condominiums – 1,200 – to-1,800 square feet, 3 bedrooms & 2 Baths with an asking price of no less than $100,000 and no more than $350,000.

 

#sales /Finished Sq Ft /Asking /Closed /Days on market

 

                Closed in 2007

  15   /1,469/  $263,500  /$257,770      /     110

 

               Closed in 2008

  11 /1,463    / $262,000/$243,250     /     242

 

              Closed in 2009

  19 /1,461  /$236,800 /$221,700    /      177

 

             Closed in 2010

 31 /1,504  /$233,800  /$218,300    /      273          

 

            Closed in 2011

23 /1,476/$228,300   /$209,700    /     330

 

In this five year market cycle we saw asking prices fall by 14% and selling prices fall by 19%...days on the market increased by 300%, the number of sales fluctuated significantly –but only due to the narrow type of condominium studied. In fact more of the 2 bedroom sized condos sold in 2008 (the low number in this study) and more single family homes were chosen in 2011 which is consistent with a recent survey of second home property sales I published last Month National Second home study. This study concluded consumers wish to get away from the expense of private club facilities and would opt for smaller more efficient style ownership.

                                               

Conclusions: Our Market in the White Mountains of New Hampshire mirrors many other recovering areas with a 20% loss of value over 5 years. Many projects with more development to come, are holding back on building and inventory is Creeping up…from a 4 month inventory to a 11 month inventory.

 

Predictions: We will see a loss of value in the order of another 3-4 % in 2012 and a modest recovery after the November elections. This will bring new construction starts and stabilizing prices in 2013 and beyond. Prices will gain appreciation from 2013 on. This was a ten year cycle that we are near/ at the bottom of, and if you are a seller and purchased more than 12 years ago you are able to sell at a small profit. Everyone in for the long haul may want to wait for a bit more recovery. Investment sales- If you are selling to move in to a new market location so long as you are buying when you sell…you will swap equity at the same time (sell modest / buy modest). For the 1031 exchange buyer – a like exchange is always a good plan to currently avoid capital gains tax on your current sales.

 

* These comparisons were done to show a narrow field, but the conclusions can be drawn for the entire market no matter the type of property held.#'s provided by Local MLS - no private sales were included in this study. * All area listings can be seen by opening the MLS icon on the bottom of this post - search by town - price range or type of property throughout the 44 towns of Grafton County New Hampshire. Happy New Years All.

Over the River and Through the Woods to Grandfathers house we go...the SUV knows the way to carry the day when the weather is extreme and snowing. It's just another winter travel day, heading home after Christmas from any point east or west of New Hampshire means - there are no direct routes or major highway connections, and that is alright if you are a skilled winter driver. Heading Back From Maine this morning I took the scenic route, truth be told they are all scenic and there is no other choice but back roads and mountain passes.

I Enjoy the views, it may take a bit longer but getting home is the real trick on these mountain roads.

I was lucky to see some pavement on this mountain road...it had snowed all night but the highway crew does an excellent job on the Kancamagus a Nationally designated Scenic highway.

This spot is called Lower Falls on the Swift River Rte 112...Between Conway and Lincoln New Hampshire.

Kancamagus Pass...2855 feet above sea level...when it snows in the valleys it really snows up here.

The accent 10 degrees grade down hill for over 3 miles straight...requires a light touch on the brakes.

Back down in the Valley at the Lincoln Woods Ranger Station, I'm less than 3 miles from my office and the Loon mountain ski resort. Over the River and through the woods and I'm back to Lincoln New Hampshire. Now if you are going North and South it's all highway -all the way to Boston...no mountain passes no rivers to forte.

             View all the area property listings by opening the MLS Icon on the bottom of this post.

 

 

Talking about the weather may be superficial, but not when you work in the ski resort industry. Freezing rain doesn’t make for great ski conditions – it does however make for beautiful glistening trees especially when the sun hits them just right.

 

On this Christmas Eve – Eve, here is wishing you all some Holiday Cheer. If you are looking for a White Christmas – Drive on up to the White Mountains and be part of the winter wonderland.

 

On to the Holiday weather –news, I’m happy to report last nights 4-6 inch snow fall will ensure a white Christmas in the White mountains of NH.

Loon Mountain ski resort and the towns of Lincoln and Woodstock New Hampshire are ready for the Holiday rush of New England Skier's , their families and of course the spending that comes along with a Winter School vacation…in the White Mountains.

This shot was taken in my Back yard at 8:45 on Friday December 23rd 2011, in Woodstock New Hampshire. The Pemigewasset river is off in the distance and is still flowing this time of year...soon it will ice over, and be blanketed in the snow that follows this holiday storm.

In a collaborative effort a local interior designer with 25 years experience (Randy Trainor) and I hope to publish a series of blogs about upcoming trends in design for the New Year. Randy has offices in Portsmouth and Franconia New Hampshire covering the sea coast (including Boston) and in the White Mountains area. We hope to give you some insight to the latest COLORS in today’s installment. Alpine Lakes Real Estate will offer Randy’s expertise in staging and designs to help buyers and sellers…of our custom build homes, and re-sale properties that need a little help to sell quickly and at the best price for our clients.

Please enjoy Randy’s professional take on color trends for 2012.

 

Color Trends for 2012

 

In today's global economy, one would think that color trends might be consistent around the globe. When I was researching the 2012 colors, I found that throughout the world the color trends are the same, but they are presented in different combinations from region to region. It is no secret that the financial and social environment influences color predictions.   In other words, combine a region's personality with current events to come up with the dominant colors for that particular region.

 

For example, here at home Benjamin Moore's color of the year is Wythe Blue, a historic, soft, grayed blue that reminds us of our heritage, of when things were simpler. Sherwin Williams keys on color schemes that reflect Earth's infinite variety, but these colors have been slightly grayed by the addition of hints of brown and black. Do you think the US financial and jobs outlook has anything to do with these color trends?

 

AKZO Nobel, the world's largest paint and coatings manufacturer, has selected a deep purple as the US color of the year. Sherwin Williams has a similar color among their 2012 palette, and SW calls this color "Marooned". I wonder why?

 

It is interesting that AKZO Nobel points to Mykonos Red, a pinkish, tropical red with a hint of pastel and a misty quality as the European color of the year, and a deep teal as Latin America's color for 2012. The fact that the red has a misty quality and the teal is deep-toned, and not bright, probably is a reflection of the overall situation in those particular regions as well.

 

Those that make the color predictions for the year always pick an overriding concept to inform their decisions. I particularly liked AKZO Nobel's concept for 2012. This concept is named "Possibilities" which refers to the inspirational and exhilarating idea that new options are waiting to be claimed. How does this translate into color trends? Think of taking colors that give us a sense of security and calm, that have a slightly grayed quality, and mixing them up in completely new ways. Interesting!

 

Enough of the background! Here are the colors for 2012!                         

 

Reds - Think berry-ripe, romantic, and edible. Remember Mykonos Red?

 

 

Oranges - Think earthy, industrial and hypnotic. These are moving from pumpkin and coral into rustier tones.

 

Yellows - Think spicy, tan and edgy. Mix a hint of curry with mustard and gold for depth and strength.

 

Greens - Think botanical, watery and natural. Combine a grassy, saturated, leafy green with a hint of chartreuse. The bluer-inspired greens of recent past are migrating to more natural, yellowed greens.

 

Blues - Think enigmatic, classic and personal, chalky, inky and ocean-deep. Last year's teals are taking on more ocean-deep, mysterious qualities.

 

Violets - Think dusky, shadowlike and mysterious. Picture a deep blackberry with hints or charcoal, or bluer violets with shades of slate.

 

Warm Neutrals - Think nude, couture, and chic. Mix gray and beige together with pearls of sand and a hint of salmon, similar to the colors of an oyster shell.

 

Cool Neutrals - Think modest, natural and solid. Industrial grays with lilac tinges or silvery gray with a hint of green.

 

Remember the concept of "Possibilities" that suggested that colors would be combined in new ways for 2012? After looking at the color charts in this article and noticing that the color combos are slightly different from last year and definitely different from the teal and burgundy or peach and soft blue color schemes of the past, wouldn't you agree?

 

Come to think of it - I don't even see the chocolate and blue combination that has been the dynamic duo of the past few years......

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I would encourage you to view C.Randolph Trainor LLC’s facebook page, web site, review her work, and read some of her recommendations from past clients.

 

We all get frustrated with holiday shopping, I guess it's no different wherever you live. I got ready to head North to the nearest town with a Wal-Mart , Home Depot, Staples...Liquor store Etc. Littleton New Hampshire is  20 miles from my home, it's on the other side of a mountain pass, known as The Franconia Notch parkway.

The "NOTCH" as seen from my house is 15 miles north - but clearly visible on a blue sky day such as this was.

I pulled on my Patriot hooded sweat shirt, hopped in the Plow truck and off I went to the big city. Just another New England football fan trying to get his last minute Holiday shopping done.

Now entering Franconia Notch State Park...if you look closely at the bottom right you'll see the highway cutting through this mountain pass.

Profile pond is a favorite place for fly fisherman...Today - winter has taken over this State Park.

Here is were I post my frank admission: I got to a clothing store where I had placed a few things in my carriage, got to the back of the Christmas shoppers line...thought about going for a hike, and abandoned my cart.

I did get to home depot - purchase a load of 2 X 4's for a basement framing project left over from the Hurricane Irene mess that flooded my house -(and threw the lumber in the truck).

On the way back I pulled over at a trail head and slipped in to the woods...A gross of 2 X 4's in the back and the cab door unlocked with no worries or concerns...off for a quick hike, before the Patriot Game. I Love N.H.

There were a number of Rock climber working on their ice tools today...Not me I stick to the trails.

Looking for Real Estate in the White Mountains of New Hampshire - Give me a call, or use the MLS icon on the bottom of this post to search all area listings...From the lakes region to the White Mountains of New Hampshire.

 

Notchview condominium – Franconia Notch – N.H.

The closest ownership offering to Cannon Mountain Ski area in an affordable price range $128,500 buys you a two bedroom / two bath furnished condo…walking distance to a state park & National forest land.

 

 

Location – Location – Location…Minimal on-site amenities keep the fees low…but access to some of the areas best attractions will keep the family interested in using and enjoying this mountain get away.

 

Natural attractions – Include the Flume gorge, Echo Lake, and miles of hiking – biking -&- snowmobiling trails…literally right out your door.

  

Man made attractions- Include the Whales tale water park, Clark’s trading post (live bear shows) – Loon & Cannon mountain ski areas, the Hobo hill train & Mini golf, Zip line tours, Golf courses, as well as many shopping & dining options.

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... 

The property it self offers…common area brook frontage , an outdoor pool, wonderful local mountain views, and is walking distance to the Famous Indian Head hotel (with public viewing tower and restaurants).

....For more listing information - Notchview Listing

 

9 Moose lane “Eagles Nest” section of Clearbrook Village.

The highest elevation homes in the Loon ski Resort Valley reside at Eagles Nest. These detached planned unit development sites offer some spectacular views. And none are better than #9 Moose Run lane.

 

 

The subdivision offers shuttle service for the all to get to the slopes when they are ready…the eager strike out the earliest – while the less ambitious ease in to the day’s activities (and can come home for lunch if they want).

 

Here is what comes with this $279,900 home at Loon Mountain in Lincoln New Hampshire: three bedrooms –plus a loft, two full baths, full size laundry, ample kitchen space for the cooks to gather, a wood burning fireplace, huge picture windows to enjoy the view and a wrap around deck for the other seasons of the year. Outdoor is why people come to the mountains and this home abuts the White Mountain national forest land.

 

The seller is from out of state and the property is being offered fully furnished and ready to enjoy for this ski season (and many more).

 

For more Photos and listing information click here MLS 4111525

Views of the ski slopes from every window in the house.

 

My Clients really love me…

 

I was a party to a very heart warming “first”- last night…A party thrown by buyers for our company to show their appreciation for all our hard work.

                                                            

Recognition is a wonderful thing – most of us (if we’re good or lucky) get it in the form of folding money. Our reward is the fee we earn for a job well done.

 

Last night – we were treated to much more than an Atta-boy and a commission check. Our clients threw a catered dinner for the broker who sold them their home site and secured all the required permits prior to closing (me) Their Architect, General Contractor, Interior designer and project supervisor at their new home.

                                                                    

I have had many dinners with clients over the years, and many a deal has been struck over a glass of wine and a cold appetizer…but a catered affair to show their heart felt appreciation for the team that designed and built their home was a glowing review of the hard work involved in custom home building work these days.

 

A testimonial or a letter of recommendation are always nice things to file away for future references…but this was a really special thing for my buyers to do for our in-house marketing-design – build team. The home came out absolutely spectacular and it took over a year to complete. The buyers were from out of state and had a limited amount of time to convey their dreams of a perfect home. I kept telling them –“We do this all the time”…in the end they showed us they believed we do.

 

Thanks Janice and Steve for the wonderful night – I hope you enjoy your new home for many – many years to come.

 

White Mountain New Hampshire brokerage and building team for custom Adirondack home designs: Alpine Lakes Realty & Cargill Construction.

 

The National results are very revealing when looking at Second home and vacation living across the country. The  Northeast Resort real estate may be the shinning spot in the Fall 2011 national survey of “resort real estate professionals” just published.

 

Not because we are selling more, but the conservative nature of the northeast kept the amount of inventory from being built way ahead of the consumer demand. The last real estate down cycle taught developers a good lesson.

 

The Kelsey & Norden Resort real estate survey was sent to: Developer (equity invested) sales manager (associates & consultants) Marketing manager, Design (planning & legal), Hotel –club operators, Ski Resort, financial adviser, lenders and vacation property owners.

                                                                                                                                                            

The Core of the respondents were asked about their primary amenities: Golf course, Ski area, Multi-amenities, Beach and lakes…were the highest respondents in that order.

 

                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                  

As one might expect the vacation home industry is expected to languish until after the 2012 elections. But the news was not all bad a theme of staying lean and mean in the interim has many developers planning for new products and projects to be ready to launch in 2013 -2014. Staying with the same floor plans and amenities – will not bring success in the future. The next generation of consumers wants different resources, recreation and activities and in fact so does the current consumer as they plan for a retirement in a recreational life-style.

                                                                                                                                                 

In 2015 the last of the baby boomers will turn 52. This was the group that fueled the second home industry through the peak sale activities from mid 1990’s – 2005. But with many of these boomer’s seeking continued fulfillment in lives – volunteering, entrepreneurial roles and wanting to stay connected and engaged with their communities this could very well indicate that projects with the right social conditions can extend the ownership interests of this group. The Generation X consumer in their 40’s will play a significant role as this “development mix” unfolds.

 

Current second home owners and future prospective customer prioritized the following important mix – developers really need to incorporate in designs:

• Increased emphasis on having a place for quality time for family & friends. 
  
• Desire to reduce both upfront and ongoing costs
• Corresponding willingness to have smaller lower cost homes
• Willingness to eliminate some amenities / services to save costs
• Increase desire to be connected & contribute to their HOA community.
• Reduced interest in private clubs & exclusivity in general.

 

Making it on to a women’s short list has never been more important than it is today.

A very interesting side note was developed in this current survey that had been over looked in the past. From a sales and marketing stand point the women consumers indicated they were willing to compromise on the residence size, and bedroom quantity in order to effect a cost cutting measure when seeking a second home. Women were also willing to “not join the club” in order to afford a vacation home. Value added designs the so called “good deal” was more appealing to women than the men in the survey. Developers take not – sell the ladies and sell the properties. Side note 45% of women use facebook weekly while 36% of men use this social media.

 

Untested sites are an uphill battle – Loyalty – is a close second to location.

Buyers choose a place with which they identify and have established connections and they refer their friends…this is the loyalist market condition. Starting a new project out in the sticks because the land was inexpensive is not a good business plan. Consumers overwhelmingly suggested market uncertainty was the biggest hurdle to buying (not price). This should make developers heed the thought of not striking out in to a new area with “no” current confidence or loyalty – no one wants to be the test subject of a resort miles from no where.

 

Social opportunities to engage with family, friends and community are on the hot list for club directors.

                                                              

 Respondents to the survey suggest there is more demand for the following:             

 “PROGRAMS” in the mix of social activities offered in resort living.

Health and wellness activities , Outdoor education, adventure 4 season activities, Food and wine programs, Performing arts, and life long learning.

“AMENITIES” in the new mix, Zip lines, Fire pits, Community gardens, Gathering areas, Dog friendly units (parks), community buildings, fishing, and PATHS for hiking –biking and snowshoeing.

                                                                                                                                                          

Price Points & Product mix – Northeast Evaluation (World study available).

The survey looked at Canada – Latin America – Caribbean – Southeast – Rockies – the Northeast and graphed the results for all participants. Nearly 40% of the surveyed indicated that under $500,000 was the price point needed to be successful in the coming product mix…the Northeast showed it’s conservative side once again with 8% suggesting under a $100,000 was the target market, 19% under $300,000 and 29% suggesting under $500,000 was the product mix likely to sell – or a total of 56% suggesting that real estate under $500,000 was the overwhelming target market

                                                                                                                                      

MIX: Suggestions of types of development that the professionals see as being the most successful in the future are as follows: Condominiums 29% / Single family 29% / Townhouse 22% which is 70% of the product mix…in smaller amounts Cottages, Destination clubs, and Time share make up the balance of the Northeast mix.

 

Results : The Boomers are looking for quality time with their families and the Generation X is moving in to their ideal age for second home buying…While boomers will require access to quality health care – the Gen X group will require lower priced homes to accommodate their pocket books. Knowing the consumers and planning for their needs can result in a successful mix of future product designs.

The location of these communities will need to be in established areas where consumers can connect…and create a loyal following. It appears we don’t have to recreate the wheel but we do have to make it more aerodynamic and one size is not going to fit all. There are many opportunities to succeed once you identify the target.

 

I have worked for a builder developer in the White Mountains of New Hampshire with the majority of our projects being designed and built at ski resorts or on lake front communities for the last 30 years. I believe the general finding of this survey are spot on and hope others will give it much consideration as they make their future development plans. I have been a participant in this annual survey for a number of years, and the findings hold very true each time it’s published.